We at MoverDB, decided to find out what the total removals costs would be of relocating all EU citizens living in the UK and all UK citizens living in the EU back to their respective “home” countries after Brexit.
After doing some number crunching, we’ve found that the absolute minimum removals costs for relocating all people would be:
- £1.1 billion total
- £304 million to move all UK citizens back to the UK.
- £787 million to move all EU citizens back to their respective countries.
And, just to be clear, this is just the cost of moving people’s stuff to and from the UK. It does not include transportation costs for people flying/driving home.
If all 4.3 million people affected managed to find cheap flights, for an average price of £49 (one-way), it would add an additional £211 million to the costs above.
We’ll go through in detail how we arrived at these numbers below, but several caveats should be addressed first.
First, no one knows what will happen in the event of a vote in favour of Brexit. However, the scenario outlined below is extremely unlikely to happen. Some EU citizens living in the UK may be forced to return to their home country and some UK citizens may be forced to return to the UK.
Nevertheless, it will be nowhere near a complete population swap. It’s a hypothetical what-if scenario, rather than any attempt at a prediction.
That said, the costs outlined below are also extremely conservative. They reflect our own international shipping cost data, along with data from World Freight Rates (WFR).
We took the lowest estimate given by WFR for a full 40ft truckload of household goods with residential pickup & delivery and multiplied that by the estimated number of moves between countries to arrive at the numbers above.
However, if everyone had to relocate at once or within a relatively shot period of time (say within on year) costs would skyrocket. The simple reason is that there wouldn’t be enough movers and removals companies, available to handle the sudden increase in demand.
Looking at 2015, net migration to the UK was 333,000. In total, 630,000 people moved to the UK and 297,000 left for all other countries around the world.
If all the moving companies that performed these moves only focused on relocations related to Brexit, there would still be a massive gap between supply and demand.
- In total, there are around 1.26 million UK citizens living in the EU, about 2X total annual immigration numbers to the UK.
- However, there are around 3 million EU citizens living in the UK, 10X the number people who emigrate from the UK each year.
- With hypothetical demand back to the UK more than double than normal (keep in mind that more immigration comes from outside the EU than from the EU itself) and demand leaving the UK more than 10X higher than normal (keep in mind the number above was for global emigration to all countries, not just the EU) prices would have to skyrocket. Think Uber Surge pricing on steroids.
It should also be noted, that the costs presented above do not take into account the wage and labour impact the removals industry would face after losing a large section of its workforce. With fewer people available to actually do the moves, costs would increase even further.
Finally, if you’re thinking this would not affect you. Just keep this stat in your head. Each year 7 million UK residents move home, many of them requiring a removal company.
With prices going through the roof, on expensive international moves, and fewer movers available to do them, let alone cheaper domestic moves, your cheap man & van is going to suddenly look a bit dearer.
Below we go into more detail about how we arrived at the two numbers above that make up our £1.1 billion total.
Cost of Moving All UK Citizens Back From The EU
As mentioned above there are roughly 1.26 million UK citizens currently living in the EU according to the UN.
Now obviously, many if not most people move as a family, rather than individuals. So to estimate the number of moves from each country, we simply divided the resident population by 2.3 people, which is the current average household size in the UK.
This gives us the total number of moves from which we can start figuring out costs.
The costs as mentioned above are based on a 40ft full truckload move with both residential pick-up and drop-off. To keep things simple we simply selected the rate from the capital city of each country to London. Obviously moves between more remote destinations would cost more.
Moreover, it does not include other common moving costs such as insurance, packing, taxes, etc. These costs would further add significantly to the overall price paid per move. Therefore, the numbers given below are the absolute lowest that could be paid, not a realtisic estimate of what prices would actually be like post-Brexit.
Number of moves by country:
| Country | UK Population | Estimated Number Of Moves |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | 308,821 | 134,270 |
| Ireland | 254,761 | 110,766 |
| France | 185,344 | 80,584 |
| Germany | 103,352 | 44,936 |
| Cyprus | 84,815 | 36,876 |
| Italy | 64,986 | 28,255 |
| Netherlands | 49,549 | 21,543 |
| Poland | 34,545 | 15,020 |
| Belgium | 27,335 | 11,885 |
| Sweden | 24,950 | 10,848 |
| Denmark | 18,556 | 8,068 |
| Portugal | 17,798 | 7,738 |
| Greece | 17,679 | 7,687 |
| Malta | 12,046 | 5,237 |
| Austria | 11,013 | 4,788 |
| Hungary | 6,980 | 3,035 |
| Finland | 6,898 | 2,999 |
| Luxembourg | 6,559 | 2,852 |
| Bulgaria | 5,329 | 2,317 |
| Slovakia | 4,890 | 2,126 |
| Czech Republic | 4,795 | 2,085 |
| Lithuania | 3,301 | 1,435 |
| Romania | 3,124 | 1,358 |
| Latvia | 1,148 | 499 |
| Croatia | 670 | 291 |
| Slovenia | 578 | 251 |
| Estonia | 487 | 212 |
| Total | 1,260,309 | 547,960 |
Cost of moves by country:
| Country | Cost per move | Total Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | £664.23 | £89,186,162.10 |
| Ireland | £279.54 | £30,963,430.41 |
| France | £258.03 | £20,793,179.27 |
| Germany | £433.98 | £19,501,174.33 |
| Cyprus | £1,539.39 | £56,766,679.50 |
| Italy | £716.47 | £20,243,704.10 |
| Netherlands | £256.73 | £5,530,745.55 |
| Poland | £613.76 | £9,218,408.35 |
| Belgium | £215.18 | £2,557,367.52 |
| Sweden | £716.25 | £7,769,755.43 |
| Denmark | £492.85 | £3,976,228.09 |
| Portugal | £815.82 | £6,313,027.98 |
| Greece | £1,201.29 | £9,233,741.70 |
| Malta | £1,107.01 | £5,797,844.55 |
| Austria | £573.34 | £2,745,301.49 |
| Hungary | £644.78 | £1,956,767.13 |
| Finland | £999.78 | £2,998,470.63 |
| Luxembourg | £283.65 | £808,895.80 |
| Bulgaria | £919.67 | £2,130,835.40 |
| Slovakia | £619.49 | £1,317,089.61 |
| Czech Republic | £505.98 | £1,054,858.30 |
| Lithuania | £825.05 | £1,184,126.11 |
| Romania | £943.08 | £1,280,948.66 |
| Latvia | £852.07 | £425,294.07 |
| Croatia | £646.53 | £188,337.00 |
| Slovenia | £600.35 | £150,870.57 |
| Estonia | £995.33 | £210,750.31 |
| Total | £304,303,993.96 |
Cost of Moving All EU Citizens Back To Their Home Countries
The same basic assumptions have been used in the following calculations as those above. The only thing to note is that price estimates were from London to each country’s capital city.
Number of moves by country:
| Country | Population in UK | Estimated Number of Moves |
|---|---|---|
| Poland | 853,000 | 370,870 |
| Ireland | 330,000 | 143,478 |
| Romania | 175,000 | 76,087 |
| Portugal | 175,000 | 76,087 |
| Italy | 170,000 | 73,913 |
| France | 170,000 | 73,913 |
| Lithuania | 156,000 | 67,826 |
| Spain | 131,000 | 56,957 |
| Germany | 131,000 | 56,957 |
| Latvia | 107,000 | 46,522 |
| Hungary | 84,000 | 36,522 |
| Netherlands | 82,000 | 35,652 |
| Slovakia | 80,000 | 34,783 |
| Bulgaria | 59,000 | 25,652 |
| Greece | 54,000 | 23,478 |
| Czech Republic | 37,000 | 16,087 |
| Sweden | 33,000 | 14,348 |
| Denmark | 27,000 | 11,739 |
| Austria | 18,000 | 7,826 |
| Belgium | 17,000 | 7,391 |
| Cyprus | 17,000 | 7,391 |
| Estonia | 13,000 | 5,652 |
| Finland | 14,000 | 6,087 |
| Total | 2,933,000 | 1,275,217 |
Cost of moves by country:
| Country | Cost Per Move | Total Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Poland | £611.21 | £226,679,186.96 |
| Ireland | £279.54 | £40,107,913.04 |
| Romania | £941.04 | £71,600,869.57 |
| Portugal | £812.71 | £61,836,630.43 |
| Italy | £713.38 | £52,728,086.96 |
| France | £253.40 | £18,729,565.22 |
| Lithuania | £820.04 | £55,620,104.35 |
| Spain | £660.38 | £37,612,947.83 |
| Germany | £430.27 | £24,506,682.61 |
| Latvia | £848.16 | £39,457,878.26 |
| Hungary | £640.62 | £23,396,556.52 |
| Netherlands | £253.08 | £9,022,852.17 |
| Slovakia | £616.20 | £21,433,043.48 |
| Bulgaria | £915.40 | £23,482,000.00 |
| Greece | £1,196.66 | £28,095,495.65 |
| Czech Republic | £504.19 | £8,110,882.61 |
| Sweden | £712.45 | £10,222,108.70 |
| Denmark | £488.96 | £5,739,965.22 |
| Austria | £569.99 | £4,460,791.30 |
| Belgium | £210.65 | £1,556,978.26 |
| Cyprus | £1,536.38 | £11,355,852.17 |
| Estonia | £993.08 | £5,613,060.87 |
| Finland | £997.33 | £6,070,704.35 |
| Total | £787,440,156.52 |
What to do if you’re worried about having to move after Brexit
First, don’t panic! Even if the UK does vote for Brexit, it won’t suddenly leave the EU. There will be a long negotiation process that would take up to 2 years. And even then, the free movement of people may remain as a condition of the UK maintaining access to the common market.
Second, if you’re eligible to vote, make sure you do so on June 23rd, 2016. And remember if voting by post, your ballot is due by 10pm on election day.
Finally, if you really want to be prepared, you can start researching international removals, moving, and shipping companies. Moreover, you may also want read more about international shipping costs and questions to ask your mover when getting moving quotes.
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Using this research: Any media outlet / website is free to republish our main findings, so long as they give linked attribution back to this page and/or MoverDB.com.
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